Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0af3…8598 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$274 (-4%) realized −$38 · open −$236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242
7 days−$121
14 days−$403
30 days−$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$524
other 6% −$15
crypto 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 48% -13.5%
≤30d 50 -5.4% -14.5% 44% 42% -16.0%
≤90d 50 -5.4% -14.5% 44% 42% -16.0%
all 50 -5.4% -14.5% 44% 42% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 42% -16.0%
10% -22.6% 38% -24.0%
15% -30.1% 34% -31.3%
20% -37.0% 30% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$82 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage9d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner K27 33¢ 0¢ $189 $0 −$189 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 23¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $214 −$210 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $197 −$193 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $126 −$67 -53%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $108 +$114 +106%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $384 −$98 -26%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $201 +$78 +39%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $177 +$172 +97%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $77 +$42 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$158 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$65 -92%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $105 +$157 +150%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $246 +$108 +44%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $92 +$154 +168%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $179 −$177 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $153 −$123 -80%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $39 −$36 -92%
Set 1 Winner: Zhu vs Kraus Jun 15 $102 +$118 +116%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $78 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $59 +$43 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $28 +$31 +109%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $62 −$3 -5%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 08 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $67 −$19 -28%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $469 −$362 -77%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $47 −$13 -28%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $96 −$33 -34%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $45 −$2 -3%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $84 −$3 -3%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $99 −$3 -3%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $157 −$7 -5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $203 −$199 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $224 +$44 +20%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $280 +$95 +34%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $99 +$64 +64%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $56 +$57 +101%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $202 +$164 +81%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $52 −$44 -84%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $51 +$28 +56%
Set 1 Winner: Bonzi vs Rottgering Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $101 +$107 +106%
Set 1 Winner: Alexandrova vs Udvardy Jun 08 $100 +$118 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 23¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 28¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 58¢ $104 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 28¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 42¢ $91 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 38¢ $214 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 36¢ $197 24h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 35¢ $127 24h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL HyperSpirit 24¢ $59 24h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 50¢ $126 25h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $222 25h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 26¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 48¢ $108 25h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $527 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 53¢ $285 28h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 57¢ $15 29h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 100¢ $279 29h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 71¢ $99 30h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 71¢ $201 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $103 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $348 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 49¢ $101 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 50¢ $76 39h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $119 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $258 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $100 41h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 64¢ $77 43h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 4¢ $6 43h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $262 43h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $71 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.39 (match) · 119 history records