Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0af1…c3ac other 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 54L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$13
politics 13% −$9
other 11% +$1
sports 2% +$52
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 53 -3.9% -13.1% 19% 13% -9.9%
all 69 +1.0% -8.6% 22% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 13% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 12% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 10% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage614d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 +$10 +114%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $115 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $124 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $123 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $135 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $134 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $124 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $136 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $128 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $15 +$11 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $6 +$4 +75%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Apr 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 01 $25 +$43 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 20m
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 20h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 24h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 44h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 46h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $8 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $16 16d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.50 · official $95.50 (match) · 302 history records