Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

0A 0x0af0…ce9f other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$29 (+10%) realized +$24 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+18.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+31.5%	+18.9%	33%	33%	+1.1%
≤30d	3	+31.5%	+18.9%	33%	33%	+1.1%
≤90d	3	+31.5%	+18.9%	33%	33%	+1.1%
all	3	+31.5%	+18.9%	33%	33%	+1.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.9%	33%	+1.1%
10%	+7.6%	33%	-8.6%
15%	-2.8%	33%	-17.4%
20%	-12.4%	33%	-25.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +31% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$8 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$212

Realized+$24

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	21¢	$50	$70	+$20 (+41%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	5¢	$50	$34	−$16 (-33%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 28	$26	+$32	+122%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$51	−$14	-28%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$51	−$3	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$26	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$37	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$51	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	19¢	$49	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$51	2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.15 · official $212.15 (match) · 11 history records