Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ae6…8700 world 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate31%37W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% $0
politics 25% $0
other 24% −$1
sports 10% $0
economics 5% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 22 +1.5% -8.1% 32% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 77 +0.4% -9.1% 31% 1% -9.6%
all 120 +0.3% -9.2% 31% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses37 / 83
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)120 / 126
History coverage310d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $76 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $45 −$2 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $59 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $37 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $65 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 03 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $73 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $78 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $37 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $12 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $3 +$1 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $71 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $187 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $178 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $43 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $38 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $38 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $34 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $19 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 16¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.21 · official $38.01 · 504 history records