Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0A 0x0ade…ed94 sports 1188 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40,273 (-17%) realized −$39,798 · open −$475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%630W / 499L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day121.6pace
Fees−$3,482est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$16,974
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 416 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 52% -8.8%
≤30d 1129 -6.2% -15.1% 56% 49% -15.9%
≤90d 1129 -6.2% -15.1% 56% 49% -15.9%
all 1129 -6.2% -15.1% 56% 49% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 49% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 40% -23.9%
15% -30.7% 28% -31.3%
20% -37.5% 16% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$134 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$7,439
Realized−$39,798
Unrealized−$475
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses630 / 499
Est. fees paid−$3,482
Open positions59
Markets (closed)1129 / 1188
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$204
Trades / day121.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 1129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 60¢ 74¢ $197 $243 +$46 (+23%)
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 71¢ 72¢ $197 $201 +$4 (+2%)
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 69¢ 69¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Mai Hontama 75¢ 74¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ 74¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Gilles Arnaud Bailly 74¢ 74¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Manoj Dhamne Manas 69¢ 68¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Philip Henning 68¢ 68¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Miriam Bulgaru 64¢ 64¢ $198 $195 −$3 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Katerina Siniakova 64¢ 64¢ $198 $195 −$3 (-2%)
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Norbert Gombos 64¢ 64¢ $197 $195 −$2 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ 62¢ $197 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Joao Lucas Da Silva 58¢ 56¢ $198 $195 −$4 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ 56¢ $196 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Frederico Ferreira Silva 56¢ 55¢ $198 $195 −$4 (-2%)
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jennifer Ruggeri 62¢ 61¢ $197 $194 −$3 (-2%)
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Pedro Martinez 67¢ 66¢ $197 $193 −$4 (-2%)
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Yanki Erel 74¢ 72¢ $197 $192 −$5 (-3%)
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Geoffrey Blancaneaux 60¢ 57¢ $197 $189 −$8 (-4%)
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jazmin Ortenzi 74¢ 63¢ $197 $168 −$29 (-15%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Tallon Griekspoor 57¢ 38¢ $197 $133 −$64 (-32%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 66¢ 85¢ $99 $127 +$28 (+29%)
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Yi Zhou 74¢ 92¢ $99 $123 +$25 (+25%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Dane Sweeny 29¢ 36¢ $97 $118 +$22 (+22%)
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 79¢ 92¢ $99 $114 +$16 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $199 +$69 +35%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $100 +$70 +70%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $99 −$58 -58%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $99 +$11 +11%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $100 +$26 +27%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $99 −$56 -57%
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 16 $100 −$77 -77%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $199 +$92 +46%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $100 −$74 -74%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $199 +$51 +26%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $99 +$6 +6%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $100 −$3 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $99 +$34 +34%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $99 +$9 +9%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $199 +$68 +34%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $199 −$134 -67%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $200 −$151 -75%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $99 −$35 -35%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $99 −$57 -57%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $99 +$39 +39%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 16 $200 −$81 -40%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $174 −$154 -88%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 16 $200 −$147 -74%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $149 −$149 -100%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $100 −$98 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $100 +$59 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $100 +$48 +48%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $149 +$119 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $274 +$179 +66%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $100 +$52 +52%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $199 +$88 +44%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $99 −$44 -45%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 15 $99 +$8 +8%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $99 +$20 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $201 −$64 -32%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $200 −$64 -32%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $199 −$155 -78%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $201 −$25 -13%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $99 −$43 -43%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $199 +$107 +54%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $100 +$57 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 64¢ $100 14m
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 64¢ $100 14m
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 56¢ $101 14m
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 55¢ $100 14m
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 86¢ $99 14m
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $100 14m
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $100 14m
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand SELL Robin Bertrand 14¢ $41 14m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ $100 15m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ $100 15m
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer SELL Lukas Neumayer 94¢ $110 16m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 86¢ $126 18m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 14¢ $43 24m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Luca Wiedenmann 8¢ $23 24m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Brandon Nakashima 84¢ $124 26m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 13¢ $2 28m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 13¢ $19 28m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 14¢ $5 28m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 73¢ $99 30m
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ $99 30m
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 74¢ $99 30m
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon SELL Bernard Tomic 93¢ $105 42m
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 75¢ $99 44m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 45¢ $99 44m
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 75¢ $99 44m
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Darja Vidmanova 77¢ $99 44m
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 27¢ $99 44m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $100 44m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 69¢ $99 44m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 69¢ $99 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,439.41 · official $7,439.49 (match) · 3500 history records