Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ade…6706 crypto 450 markets active 36d ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,304 (-4%) realized −$11,248 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate78%351W / 98L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$592per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$8,920
tech 1% −$3,189
politics 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 449 -2.9% -12.2% 78% 37% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 37% -10.8%
10% -20.6% 24% -19.3%
15% -28.2% 16% -27.1%
20% -35.3% 10% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$518 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$11,248
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses351 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)449 / 450
History coverage200d
Avg bet$592
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 30¢ 1¢ $58 $2 −$56 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 13 $1,510 +$194 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 13 $1,705 +$77 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 13 $1,781 −$1,774 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 13 $950 +$561 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 13 $676 +$274 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 13 $100 +$57 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 13 $100 +$58 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 13 $200 +$75 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 13 $200 −$24 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 13 $275 −$99 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 13 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 08 $100 +$84 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 08 $235 −$231 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 08 $235 −$232 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 08 $152 +$79 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 08 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 08 $83 +$47 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 08 $46 +$36 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 08 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 08 $14 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 08 $168 −$166 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$66 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 08 $144 −$142 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$73 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 08 $233 +$195 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 08 $156 +$74 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 08 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$58 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 08 $252 −$248 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 08 $153 +$99 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$51 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$44 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 08 $144 −$142 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 08 $143 +$65 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 08 $169 −$167 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$67 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 08 $100 +$79 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 30¢ $60 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1,781 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1,705 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1,510 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $950 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $676 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $100 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $100 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $116 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $100 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $100 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $88 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $75 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $114 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $100 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $100 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $100 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $100 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $98 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $100 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $75 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $100 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $100 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $100 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $100 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $235 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $235 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $152 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $100 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $83 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.85 · official $1.85 (match) · 1210 history records