Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0adc…f577 crypto 1976 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-1%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%1101W / 753L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$427
14 days+$605
30 days+$605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 514 +12.3% +1.6% 61% 60% +2.3%
≤30d 731 +10.1% -0.4% 59% 58% +1.7%
≤90d 1854 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 50% -7.6%
all 1854 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 50% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 50% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 42% -16.4%
15% -26.3% 36% -24.5%
20% -33.6% 29% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses1101 / 753
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1854 / 1976
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1854 Trades
no open positions (498 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$7 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$28 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$37 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $37 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $14 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 3500 history records