Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0A 0x0ada…36cf other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$574 (+8%) realized +$508 · open +$66
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$2,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1,730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$1,426
sports 13% −$386
world 6% −$420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+68.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +284.6% +247.9% 75% 75% +78.8%
≤90d 16 +109.5% +89.6% 44% 44% +42.9%
all 18 +86.3% +68.5% 39% 39% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +68.5% 39% +6.9%
10% +52.4% 39% -3.3%
15% +37.7% 33% -12.7%
20% +24.2% 28% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -99% → late +271% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$120 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$2,962
Realized+$508
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)18 / 26
History coverage153d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $810 $922 +$112 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $746 $662 −$84 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $415 $618 +$202 (+49%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $420 $332 −$88 (-21%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $175 $172 −$3 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $180 $145 −$35 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $85 −$25 (-23%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $25 −$15 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $94 +$699 +744%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $25 +$104 +416%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 27 $62 −$61 -99%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-2.5) vs Prado (+2.5) May 26 $280 +$134 +48%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $104 +$25 +24%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $1,137 +$780 +69%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $103 +$76 +74%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5) May 10 $38 +$61 +163%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 28 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 28 $72 −$31 -44%
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 26 $171 −$169 -99%
Madrid Open: Terence Atmane vs Alexander Zverev Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $210 −$208 -99%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Open Sud de France: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Arthur Fils Feb 06 $350 −$350 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 15 $420 −$420 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $178 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $273 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $492 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $404 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $408 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $830 8d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $185 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $863 14d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 18¢ $156 15d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 12¢ $125 15d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 18¢ $184 15d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $157 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $77 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $77 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $71 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $57 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 61¢ $62 20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $853 21d
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-2.5) vs Prado (+2.5) BUY Prado 67¢ $277 22d
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-2.5) vs Prado (+2.5) BUY Prado 67¢ $3 22d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $75 22d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $42 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,962.45 · official $2,962.50 (match) · 199 history records