Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ad9…5631 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-4%) realized −$50 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day99.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$98
weather 2% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -11.3% -19.8% 62% 38% -19.9%
≤30d 32 -11.3% -19.8% 62% 38% -19.9%
≤90d 32 -11.3% -19.8% 62% 38% -19.9%
all 32 -11.3% -19.8% 62% 38% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 38% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 25% -27.6%
15% -34.5% 12% -34.6%
20% -40.9% 9% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day99.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 28? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? No 64¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 65¢ 65¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 0¢ 26¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$25 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 10m
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 65¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $28 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $29 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.00 · official $38.00 · 116 history records