Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0ad9…5f9b crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$87 (+7%) realized +$106 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$141
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$69
other 35% −$34
sports 25% +$49
weather 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +68.6% +52.5% 100% 100% +52.5%
≤30d 17 -71.9% -74.6% 18% 18% -29.2%
≤90d 25 -31.7% -38.2% 40% 36% -1.1%
all 27 -27.3% -34.2% 44% 41% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 41% -0.8%
10% -40.5% 33% -10.3%
15% -46.3% 30% -18.9%
20% -51.5% 15% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$21 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage127d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $103 +$107 +104%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $103 +$34 +34%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$1 -9%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Apr 29 $10 +$4 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $110 +$163 +148%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 12 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $30 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 08 $10 +$12 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $30 +$21 +71%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 19 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $137 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $209 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $140 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $103 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $103 36d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 54d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 56d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 56d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 56d
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 57d
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 64d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $200 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? BUY No 18¢ $5 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? BUY No 22¢ $15 69d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 25¢ $273 69d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 73d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 73d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? SELL No 99¢ $40 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? BUY No 86¢ $35 74d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 74d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 74d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 78d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 26¢ $41 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $24 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.34 · official $381.34 (match) · 146 history records