Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ad5…ae77 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$77 (-1%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$10
sports 20% −$58
crypto 1% −$9
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -46.2% -51.4% 50% 0% -51.2%
≤30d 6 -9.3% -18.0% 83% 33% -18.3%
≤90d 6 -9.3% -18.0% 83% 33% -18.3%
all 22 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 18% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 18% -10.3%
10% -17.5% 5% -18.9%
15% -25.5% 5% -26.7%
20% -32.8% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage149d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +8%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down on May 18? Jun 06 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Gwangju FC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 06 $14 +$2 +11%
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-2.5) Jun 06 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 06 $18 +$1 +7%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 18 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Nexus - Map 2 Winner Feb 17 $43 +$86 +203%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 15 Feb 14 $76 −$9 -12%
Will Anthony Alfredo win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Daytona 500? Feb 14 $28 −$1 -5%
Will G2 Esports win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? Feb 14 $1,547 −$13 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the Eastern Conference? Feb 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $83 −$3 -3%
Will Aurora Gaming win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? Feb 14 $1,671 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 15 Feb 14 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Canada win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $1,706 $0 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am? Feb 14 $57 −$3 -5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $1,562 −$5 -0%
Will Switzerland win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympic Feb 14 $1,581 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 03 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 03 $8 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $11 1h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? BUY No 93¢ $16 5d
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $16 10d
Spread: KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-2.5) BUY Rosenborg BK 93¢ $16 22d
XRP Up or Down on May 18? BUY Down 90¢ $14 29d
Will Gwangju FC win on 2026-05-12? BUY No 90¢ $14 36d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? BUY No 93¢ $18 58d
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 30¢ $69 119d
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 30¢ $44 119d
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 30¢ $5 119d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Nexus - Map 2 Winner BUY Nexus 33¢ $43 120d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 15 SELL Yes $67 121d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 15 BUY Yes $76 122d
Will Anthony Alfredo win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Daytona 500? SELL Yes $2 122d
Will Anthony Alfredo win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Daytona 500? SELL Yes $24 122d
Will Anthony Alfredo win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Daytona 500? BUY Yes $4 122d
Will Anthony Alfredo win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Daytona 500? BUY Yes $24 122d
Will G2 Esports win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1,533 122d
Will G2 Esports win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,547 122d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes $8 122d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the Eastern Conference? SELL Yes $30 122d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes $38 122d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $42 122d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $38 122d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $83 122d
Will Aurora Gaming win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1,671 122d
Will Aurora Gaming win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,671 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 15 SELL Yes $1 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 15 SELL Yes $11 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 15 BUY Yes $15 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.22 · official $28.22 (match) · 53 history records