Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0A 0x0ad0…22b4 sports 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$10
finance 23% +$1
crypto 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -36.6% -42.6% 50% 50% -61.6%
≤30d 3 -23.5% -30.8% 67% 33% -29.2%
≤90d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 75% 50% -20.7%
all 10 +13.6% +2.8% 80% 60% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 60% -8.6%
10% -7.0% 50% -17.3%
15% -16.0% 20% -25.3%
20% -24.3% 20% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage93d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 30 $22 +$1 +3%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bulls vs. Thunder Apr 17 $13 +$1 +5%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $7 +$7 +92%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 26 $4 +$1 +30%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Mar 22 $5 +$1 +30%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $7 +$9 +138%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Mar 14 $12 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 10d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $22 29d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 89¢ $12 56d
Bulls vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 95¢ $13 81d
Knicks vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 52¢ $7 82d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 77¢ $4 86d
Timberwolves vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 77¢ $5 93d
Nuggets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 42¢ $7 94d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 90¢ $12 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records