Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0acd…b1f5 sports 165 markets active 2d ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+6%) realized +$107 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%87W / 73L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$69
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$151
world 18% +$4
tech 8% −$11
other 7% +$36
crypto 5% −$15
culture 4% −$39
politics 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.3% -23.3% 40% 40% +43.9%
≤30d 42 +12.6% +1.9% 60% 60% +23.9%
≤90d 80 +7.7% -2.6% 56% 54% -1.6%
all 160 +1.9% -7.8% 54% 48% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 48% -4.3%
10% -16.6% 43% -13.4%
15% -24.7% 36% -21.8%
20% -32.1% 31% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses87 / 73
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)160 / 165
History coverage189d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$10 +188%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$13 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$5 +88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +173%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$2 +158%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $8 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $15 +$31 +203%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $5 +$4 +83%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$3 +83%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 04 $3 +$3 +97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5 +$6 +119%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $12 +$3 +25%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2 +$2 +101%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q Jun 02 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $2 +$2 +86%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 29 $2 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $7 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $16 −$3 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $25 +$8 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 16 $11 +$7 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $20 +$2 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $5 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 3d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 27¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 77¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 69¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 14¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 70¢ $5 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 38¢ $1 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 10¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 19¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL BIG 60¢ $46 12d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 8¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 69¢ $10 12d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 61¢ $8 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 64¢ $8 12d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 32¢ $3 13d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 64¢ $10 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY FlyQuest 80¢ $12 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.51 · official $16.51 (match) · 465 history records