Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:55:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ac4…77f0 crypto 27 markets active 7h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$118 (-34%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$133
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$20
crypto 32% −$4
politics 28% −$92
sports 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -13.9% -22.1% 58% 38% -47.4%
≤30d 26 -1.2% -10.6% 58% 38% -42.8%
≤90d 26 -1.2% -10.6% 58% 38% -42.8%
all 26 -1.2% -10.6% 58% 38% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 38% -42.8%
10% -19.1% 23% -48.3%
15% -27.0% 12% -53.3%
20% -34.1% 12% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage8d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $96 −$92 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$49 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$26 +404%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Will Po BUY 27¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 6h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $4 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $76 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $9 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $4.22 · 68 history records