Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0A 0x0ac0…4390 weather 736 markets active 5h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$444 (+20%) realized +$446 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%252W / 482L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$0
14 days+$12
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% +$20
finance 9% +$60
world 7% +$149
crypto 4% −$14
sports 2% −$2
politics 2% +$238
other 1% −$28
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -3.6% -12.8% 28% 28% -9.3%
≤30d 263 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 29% -8.0%
≤90d 715 +1.6% -8.1% 34% 34% +9.7%
all 734 +1.1% -8.5% 34% 33% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 33% +8.5%
10% -17.3% 32% -1.8%
15% -25.3% 29% -11.3%
20% -32.6% 26% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$446
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses252 / 482
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)734 / 736
History coverage103d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 734 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 17¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 472 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$5 +202%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 +$5 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 17 $2 +$23 +1052%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$12 +570%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +213%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 33h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.34 · official $19.35 (match) · 1120 history records