Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0A 0x0abd…695a crypto 1403 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+0%) realized +$64 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%955W / 444L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$302
14 days+$349
30 days+$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$359
sports 0% −$10
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 +2.0% -7.7% 85% 50% -5.6%
≤30d 671 +2.4% -7.4% 87% 42% -6.0%
≤90d 1399 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 46% -7.1%
all 1399 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 46% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 46% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 26% -16.0%
15% -31.0% 17% -24.1%
20% -37.7% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses955 / 444
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1399 / 1403
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 84¢ 68¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Norway 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +5%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$6 +13%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$12 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$17 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$8 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$8 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance BUY Norway 64¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.29 · official $64.33 · 3500 history records