Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ab9…25e2 world 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%26W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$7
politics 20% +$1
other 16% −$7
crypto 11% +$2
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -4.2% -13.3% 19% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 16 -4.2% -13.3% 19% 6% -8.5%
all 65 -3.2% -12.5% 40% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -20.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses26 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage308d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $29 +$10 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $83 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $21 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jan 31 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $18 $0 +1%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Oct 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 18 $7 $0 -1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Oct 14 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $14 +$1 +6%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $43 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 16h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $46 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $46 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $41 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $48 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $43 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $44 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $49 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $52 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 186 history records