Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0ab7…6872 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,551 (+20%) realized +$1,540 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%26W / 16L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$2,382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$244
14 days+$1,053
30 days+$1,441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,224
other 46% +$66
crypto 4% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+82.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +169.8% +144.1% 67% 67% +1.9%
≤30d 37 +120.9% +99.9% 65% 65% +23.2%
≤90d 42 +101.3% +82.1% 62% 62% +15.1%
all 42 +101.3% +82.1% 62% 62% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +82.1% 62% +15.1%
10% +64.7% 62% +4.1%
15% +48.8% 62% -5.9%
20% +34.2% 40% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +190% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$77 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$2,382
Realized+$1,540
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions21
Markets (closed)42 / 63
History coverage73d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $239 $368 +$129 (+54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $250 $211 −$39 (-16%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $185 −$15 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $200 $142 −$58 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $150 $127 −$23 (-15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 68¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 62¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$28 +50%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$41 +58%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$46 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $76 +$47 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$46 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$28 +40%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$56 +73%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $136 +$65 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$71 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $427 +$437 +102%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $152 +$136 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$83 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$168 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $152 −$150 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $564 +$610 +108%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 28 $408 −$72 -18%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $520 +$228 +44%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $400 +$150 +38%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $35 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $46 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $56 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $61 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $82 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $110 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $50 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $56 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $76 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $76 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $51 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $71 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $61 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $81 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $46 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,381.88 · official $2,380.25 (match) · 136 history records