Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ab6…4880 sports 1172 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$296 (-1%) realized −$296 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%631W / 540L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$256est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$64
14 days−$69
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$476
crypto 6% −$135
other 1% +$23
weather 1% +$23
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +10.9% +0.3% 60% 55% -7.4%
≤30d 452 +3.2% -6.7% 59% 56% -9.0%
≤90d 1170 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 46% -11.9%
all 1171 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 46% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 46% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 40% -20.3%
15% -28.7% 33% -28.0%
20% -35.7% 25% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses631 / 540
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1171 / 1172
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner 9z 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +291%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$12 -57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$14 +70%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$7 -23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$21 +93%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$15 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$16 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$15 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$40 +99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $106 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$18 -45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$11 -34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$6 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $35 −$3 -9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$20 +99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $34 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$6 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$6 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $116 −$116 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $19 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $20 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 14¢ $9 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $34 14h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 9¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $20 15h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 31¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 69¢ $21 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 12¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $20 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $20 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $20 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 88¢ $28 17h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 47¢ $20 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 63¢ $20 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $44 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 21¢ $12 18h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 46¢ $20 18h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $20 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 6¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 45¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.76 · official $19.76 (match) · 3415 history records