Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ab4…03ee world 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 43L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$7
other 15% +$2
politics 9% −$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% +$11
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 22 -1.3% -10.7% 23% 5% -10.4%
≤90d 30 -1.0% -10.4% 23% 3% -9.9%
all 71 -0.6% -10.1% 39% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage490d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $91 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $87 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $70 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $77 −$2 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $37 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $51 −$4 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $312 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $6 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $258 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 12 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $11 −$1 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 08 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Williams have the second highest Constructor score at the 2025 Mo May 24 $2 −$1 -32%
Will 'The Brave' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will ‘Suicide Squad ISEKAI’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 20 May 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Left Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislati May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $35 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $34 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $24 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $3 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $24 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $35 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $31 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $8 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $17 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $29 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $31 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $31 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $15 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $3.53 (match) · 259 history records