Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0ab0…6580 weather 507 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$203 (-21%) realized −$225 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%144W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$31
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% −$200
crypto 22% −$4
other 0% −$4
sports 0% −$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -11.2% -19.7% 45% 36% -10.1%
≤30d 467 -25.9% -32.9% 30% 25% -26.2%
≤90d 490 -25.8% -32.9% 29% 25% -26.5%
all 490 -25.8% -32.9% 29% 25% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 25% -26.5%
10% -39.3% 22% -33.6%
15% -45.2% 17% -40.0%
20% -50.6% 13% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses144 / 346
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)490 / 507
History coverage54d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 490 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 18¢ 92¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+408%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+270%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+185%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on May 28? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 6? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 10? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +202%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.73 · official $27.61 (match) · 1170 history records