Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0ab0…0c40 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$50 (+13%) realized +$49 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$46
crypto 14% +$5
sports 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 56% +3.7%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 56% +3.7%
≤90d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 56% +3.7%
all 16 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 56% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 56% +3.7%
10% -17.8% 50% -6.2%
15% -25.7% 38% -15.3%
20% -33.0% 31% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -18%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $46 +$28 +61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 +$5 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $43 +$8 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22 −$21 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$8 +91%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 +$5 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +135%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $27 +$10 +36%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $17 +$9 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 9m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 12m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $69 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $46 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $51 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 33h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 6¢ $3 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $17 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 77¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.81 · official $79.81 (match) · 38 history records