Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0ab0…ba53 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+7%) realized +$48 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$14
sports 14% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.1% -6.8% 67% 67% -13.4%
≤30d 6 +3.1% -6.8% 67% 67% -13.4%
≤90d 7 +5.6% -4.4% 71% 71% -11.0%
all 7 +5.6% -4.4% 71% 71% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 71% -11.0%
10% -13.6% 57% -19.5%
15% -21.9% 57% -27.3%
20% -29.6% 14% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$145 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage56d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $147 $173 +$26 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 −$70 -70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $220 +$141 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $225 −$221 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$7 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $150 +$64 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$45 +45%
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $97 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $30 8m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $150 11m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $361 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $220 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $200 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $214 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $150 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 35h
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 55d
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $97 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.85 · official $164.67 · 15 history records