Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0aae…5efa sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$3,857 (-7%) realized −$4,182 · open +$286
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$951per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$519est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,598now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,433
7 days−$2,433
14 days−$2,433
30 days−$2,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$9,268
other 29% +$5,372
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -60.0% -63.8% 25% 25% -92.3%
≤30d 10 -3.8% -12.9% 40% 40% -38.9%
≤90d 57 +1.7% -8.0% 46% 46% -16.5%
all 57 +1.7% -8.0% 46% 46% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 46% -16.5%
10% -16.8% 42% -24.5%
15% -24.8% 32% -31.8%
20% -32.2% 23% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,353) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$764 vs −$775 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$1,598
Realized−$4,182
Unrealized+$286
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$519
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage64d
Avg bet$951
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 56¢ $1,297 $1,593 +$296 (+23%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $4 −$10 (-68%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 28¢ $686 $0 −$686 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Karmine Corp Blue 33¢ $660 $0 −$660 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 64¢ $544 $0 −$544 (-100%)
Wild vs. Blues Wild 44¢ $923 $0 −$923 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Vitality.Bee 27¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? No 43¢ $757 $0 −$757 (-100%)
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-13? No 48¢ $931 $0 −$931 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? No 31¢ $899 $0 −$899 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 67¢ $2,132 $0 −$2,132 (-100%)
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27? Yes 57¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? No 66¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? No 28¢ $796 $0 −$796 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ $2,328 $0 −$2,328 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Gentle Mates 40¢ $1,353 $0 −$1,353 (-100%)
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw? No 79¢ $3,808 $0 −$3,808 (-100%)
Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5 Over 28¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-19? No 57¢ $2,691 $0 −$2,691 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Canucks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Under 42¢ $2,390 $0 −$2,390 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 KT Rolster 29¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 37¢ $729 $0 −$729 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Tundra Esports 79¢ $285 $0 −$285 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Oilers Oilers 47¢ $1,363 $0 −$1,363 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $52 −$28 -53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $178 +$24 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2,361 −$2,328 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $48 −$47 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $406 +$1,014 +250%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $997 +$1,513 +152%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $2,153 −$2,132 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 17 $80 −$79 -99%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 16 $84 +$84 +101%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 13 $774 −$62 -8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $19 +$21 +105%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 11 $960 +$1,010 +105%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $847 +$1,004 +119%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma end in a draw? May 10 $2,842 +$733 +26%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $813 −$796 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 09 $732 +$711 +97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 07 $743 −$729 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $1,380 +$200 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1,061 +$1,999 +188%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $751 +$284 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $263 +$64 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $262 +$72 +27%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 29 $550 −$544 -99%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $49 −$48 -99%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw? Apr 26 $3,832 −$3,808 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $3,244 +$1,481 +46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $918 −$899 -98%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 24 $77 −$3 -3%
LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 23 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 23 $770 −$757 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $31 +$38 +124%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $735 +$1,664 +226%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $94 +$43 +46%
Will Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Apr 20 $800 +$194 +24%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2,726 −$2,691 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $287 −$285 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 18 $143 −$3 -2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 18 $699 −$11 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $701 −$686 -98%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $1,104 +$2,896 +262%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $2,236 −$130 -6%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 16 $674 −$660 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1,127 +$273 +24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $1,520 +$466 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $1,367 +$884 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $1,320 +$660 +50%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $946 −$931 -98%
Wild vs. Blues Apr 13 $923 −$923 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $1,377 −$1,353 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1,318 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Over 34¢ $24 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $52 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1,189 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $178 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1,172 26h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 8d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $48 19d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 28¢ $406 21d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 39¢ $997 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 67¢ $2,153 27d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 66¢ $80 28d
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Team WE 49¢ $84 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 28¢ $617 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $533 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $0 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $0 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $8 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $8 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $17 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $17 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $0 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $0 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $0 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $0 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $17 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $0 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $17 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 30¢ $12 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,597.52 · official $1,597.80 (match) · 124 history records