Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0A
0x0aae…251c
other · 289 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$155,301 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$610,684 · open +$1,447
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52,664
Realized+$610,684
Unrealized+$1,447
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses198 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions24
Markets (closed)265 / 289
History coverage178d
Avg bet$5,360
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 24 History 265 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$334
7 days+$334
14 days+$442
30 days−$665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $25,561 $26,354 +$793 (+3%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $7,813 $7,904 +$91 (+1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $6,138 $6,189 +$51 (+1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 90¢ 95¢ $1,596 $1,692 +$97 (+6%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,203 $1,249 +$46 (+4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 78¢ 85¢ $1,052 $1,141 +$89 (+8%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $939 $1,013 +$73 (+8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 79¢ 94¢ $790 $937 +$147 (+19%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $906 $921 +$15 (+2%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 92¢ 95¢ $870 $900 +$30 (+3%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $760 $875 +$115 (+15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $581 $586 +$5 (+1%)
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $440 $488 +$48 (+11%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 87¢ 98¢ $431 $483 +$52 (+12%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 87¢ 88¢ $435 $438 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $540 $430 −$110 (-20%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 78¢ 66¢ $390 $332 −$58 (-15%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? Yes 87¢ 89¢ $261 $267 +$6 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $269 $232 −$36 (-14%)
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $114 $100 −$14 (-12%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No 80¢ 78¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Coco Gauff 78¢ 0¢ $1,615 $0 −$1,615 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $16 +$9 +56%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $1,675 +$325 +19%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1,938 +$62 +3%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $4,960 +$40 +1%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $295 +$205 +69%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $3,796 +$204 +5%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 19 $100 +$100 +100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $1,625 −$1,615 -99%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Major US official out by May 31? May 14 $310 −$213 -69%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $483 +$16 +3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 11 $941 +$59 +6%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference? May 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 10 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 09 $932 −$312 -34%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 08 $612 −$226 -37%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $47,430 +$115 +0%
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference? Apr 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? Apr 29 $4 +$2 +37%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 29 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c Apr 29 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 29 $25 +$75 +300%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Apr 29 $973 +$27 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $28,184 +$374 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 08 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $20,564 +$134 +1%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 08 $22,874 +$224 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $2,446 +$38 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $22,706 +$168 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $1,416 +$62 +4%
Will Spain join the Board of Peace? Mar 18 $454 +$6 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Mar 18 $161 +$4 +2%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $545 +$197 +36%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $44,232 +$3,428 +8%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Mar 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Mar 18 $12 +$10 +82%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 03 $3,615 −$1,969 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $4,760 +$240 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $14,489 +$313 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $8,523 −$7,703 -90%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 28 $67 +$7 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,828 +$100 +6%
Will Trump say "Affordability" during WEF Address on January 21? Feb 28 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21? Feb 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the US strike Yemen next? Feb 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in no change with <2 dissen Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 32% +$42,551
crypto 23% +$77,912
other 15% +$420,042
politics 13% +$14,016
world 11% +$20,157
sports 4% +$35,164
tech 2% +$1,886
culture 0% +$370
finance 0% +$31
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 2h
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 15h
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $419 31h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 36h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 38¢ $95 36h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 39h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 39h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $82 39h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $12 39h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $23 39h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $475 39h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4,361 39h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,958 39h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $2,000 39h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $6,463 39h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $38 8d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $13 8d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $105 8d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $3 9d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 93¢ $1 9d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4,204 18d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 79¢ $1,363 28d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 75¢ $97 28d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 75¢ $161 28d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 74¢ $4 28d
Nothing Ever Happens: March BUY Something 38¢ $6 30d
Nothing Ever Happens: March BUY Something 38¢ $3 30d
Major US official out by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $106 30d
Major US official out by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $42 31d
Major US official out by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $28 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +37.9% +24.8% 100% 100% +8.4%
≤30d 9 +17.2% +6.1% 89% 44% -13.6%
≤90d 40 -12.9% -21.2% 65% 20% -8.3%
all 265 +58.4% +43.4% 75% 28% +26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.4% 28% +26.3%
10% ← realistic here +29.6% 22% +14.2%
15% +17.1% 17% +3.2%
20% +5.6% 15% -6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52,663.93 · official $52,663.93 (match) · 3500 history records