Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

0A 0x0aab…d91c world 4 markets active 8h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$155 (-24%) realized +$26 · open −$181

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$158per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+4.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+15.5%	+4.5%	100%	100%	+4.5%
≤30d	1	+15.5%	+4.5%	100%	100%	+4.5%
≤90d	1	+15.5%	+4.5%	100%	100%	+4.5%
all	1	+15.5%	+4.5%	100%	100%	+4.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.5%	100%	+4.5%
10%	-5.5%	0%	-5.5%
15%	-14.6%	0%	-14.6%
20%	-23.0%	0%	-23.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$249

Realized+$26

Unrealized−$181

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$158

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	23¢	19¢	$200	$165	−$35 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	38¢	10¢	$190	$50	−$140 (-74%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	22¢	18¢	$40	$34	−$6 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 17	$203	+$32	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	BUY No	38¢	$190	8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL No	0¢	$0	23h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o	BUY Yes	22¢	$40	47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	23¢	$200	2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	13¢	$3	2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	86¢	$235	2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	74¢	$200	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.32 · official $249.32 (match) · 7 history records