Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0aa8…ea63 crypto 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,013 (-17%) realized −$1,824 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$197
14 days−$908
30 days−$908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$1,638
crypto 29% −$267
other 16% −$541
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.2% -9.4% 49% 49% -12.4%
≤30d 43 -4.5% -13.6% 47% 47% -23.2%
≤90d 89 -9.7% -18.3% 44% 44% -28.1%
all 89 -9.7% -18.3% 44% 44% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 44% -28.1%
10% -26.1% 42% -35.0%
15% -33.3% 39% -41.3%
20% -39.8% 36% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$117 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$802
Realized−$1,824
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 50
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions9
Markets (closed)89 / 98
History coverage40d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $287 $285 −$2 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $148 $151 +$4 (+3%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $142 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 43¢ 40¢ $73 $69 −$4 (-6%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Under 36¢ 36¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 29¢ 30¢ $35 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 58¢ 14¢ $139 $35 −$104 (-75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 27¢ 16¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-39%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 48¢ 10¢ $81 $17 −$64 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$36 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $78 −$72 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$23 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$58 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$53 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$66 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$133 +128%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 18 $286 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$47 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$35 +68%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $142 −$140 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $276 +$132 +48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $284 −$279 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $145 +$135 +93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $142 +$128 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $150 −$148 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $144 −$142 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $142 −$140 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $224 +$176 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $73 +$137 +188%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $433 −$428 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $217 −$214 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $428 +$416 +97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $217 +$163 +75%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 05 $359 −$354 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 05 $361 −$356 -99%
Pegula vs. Masarova: Match O/U 21.5 May 10 $13 +$8 +60%
Svitolina vs. Baptiste: Match O/U 21.5 May 10 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 10 $148 −$143 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 10 $62 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 10 $62 +$77 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 10 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 10 $155 −$150 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $193 26m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $97 31m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 36¢ $37 48m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 57¢ $144 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $80 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $802.45 · official $802.45 (match) · 195 history records