Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0aa3…78e8 crypto 19 markets active 6d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$72 (-1%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% +$1
other 30% +$6
sports 12% −$68
world 10% −$2
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -5.3% -14.3% 47% 21% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 21% -10.3%
10% -22.5% 21% -18.9%
15% -30.0% 21% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$816) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage122d
Avg bet$431
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
SC Internacional vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Mar 12 $816 +$3 +0%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Mar 11 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Adal Regis be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02? Mar 11 $789 +$1 +0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e Mar 11 $840 +$2 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Mar 11 $813 −$2 -0%
Will David Ehrlich be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07? Mar 11 $1,515 $0 -0%
Will Fulham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $878 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in April 2026? Mar 11 $804 +$2 +0%
Will Yasmeen Bankole be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08? Mar 11 $750 +$2 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET Mar 02 $6 +$6 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 1AM ET Mar 01 $6 +$6 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12PM ET Mar 01 $11 +$11 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 10PM ET Feb 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3AM ET Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 9PM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2PM ET Feb 10 $8 +$8 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
SC Internacional vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $65 94d
Will Elena Rybakina win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $0 96d
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $835 97d
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $836 97d
Will Adal Regis be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02? SELL No 100¢ $758 97d
Will Adal Regis be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02? SELL No 100¢ $32 97d
Will Adal Regis be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02? BUY No 100¢ $789 97d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e SELL No 99¢ $827 97d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e SELL No 99¢ $15 97d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the e BUY No 99¢ $840 97d
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $810 97d
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $813 97d
Will David Ehrlich be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07? SELL No 99¢ $760 97d
Will David Ehrlich be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07? BUY No 99¢ $761 97d
Will David Ehrlich be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07? SELL No 99¢ $755 97d
Will David Ehrlich be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07? BUY No 99¢ $755 97d
Will Fulham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $68 97d
Will Fulham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $807 97d
Will Fulham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? BUY No 99¢ $878 97d
Will Elena Rybakina win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $818 97d
Will Elena Rybakina win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $816 97d
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 99¢ $806 97d
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $804 97d
Will Yasmeen Bankole be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08? SELL No 100¢ $751 97d
Will Yasmeen Bankole be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08? BUY No 99¢ $750 97d
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 106d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 1AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 107d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 1AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records