Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0a9f…95d2 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$184 (-12%) realized −$138 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$112
14 days+$112
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$118
sports 25% +$107
world 15% −$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.9% +9.4% 100% 67% +2.4%
≤30d 3 +20.9% +9.4% 100% 67% +2.4%
≤90d 6 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 50% -5.3%
all 8 -22.1% -29.5% 50% 38% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 38% -23.3%
10% -36.3% 25% -30.6%
15% -42.4% 25% -37.3%
20% -48.1% 12% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$77 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage226d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 62¢ $258 $212 −$46 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 24 $478 +$5 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $220 +$44 +20%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $151 +$63 +42%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Apr 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $16 +$12 +79%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 09 $50 −$10 -19%
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 13 $220 −$220 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $260 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $263 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $179 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $85 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $264 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Canada 83¢ $220 9h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $220 9h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $214 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $214 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $151 34h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 71d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 71d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 71d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 107d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $41 107d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 124d
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes 2¢ $55 223d
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 224d
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 224d
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes 6¢ $69 225d
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 225d
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.99 · official $211.99 (match) · 24 history records