Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0A 0x0a9e…03de crypto 1728 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$601 (-11%) realized −$602 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%748W / 978L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day152.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$302
14 days−$359
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$359
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1009 -9.6% -18.3% 42% 42% -18.2%
≤30d 1726 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 43% -15.6%
≤90d 1726 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 43% -15.6%
all 1726 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 43% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 43% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 43% -23.7%
15% -31.1% 43% -31.0%
20% -37.8% 43% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$602
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses748 / 978
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1726 / 1728
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day152.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1726 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 43¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.52 · official $3.52 (match) · 3500 history records