Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a9d…7373 crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$13,473 (-28%) realized −$13,465 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%69W / 46L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day77.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$778
other 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.7% +8.3% 56% 56% +11.4%
≤30d 74 +3.0% -6.8% 57% 55% -17.3%
≤90d 115 +20.7% +9.2% 60% 57% -12.5%
all 115 +20.7% +9.2% 60% 57% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.2% 57% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -1.3% 46% -20.8%
15% -10.8% 39% -28.5%
20% -19.5% 33% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$581) neutral
Persistence
early +39% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$358 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$13,465
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses69 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$421
Trades / day77.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $61 $53 −$8 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $411 +$393 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 18 $862 −$854 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $630 +$247 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$69 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $400 +$324 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $276 +$354 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,021 −$15 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $502 +$546 +109%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$103 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $468 +$688 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $507 −$507 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $124 +$237 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $540 −$540 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $511 +$168 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $110 +$134 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $727 −$727 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $500 +$137 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $236 +$382 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $770 −$770 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $596 +$376 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $540 −$540 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $504 +$273 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $252 +$32 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $324 +$540 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $581 −$41 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $186 +$294 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $259 +$57 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $608 +$91 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET Jun 07 $387 +$232 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 07 $171 +$164 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $49 +$47 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 05 $492 +$460 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $378 −$378 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 03 $378 −$378 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET Jun 03 $840 −$840 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $633 +$348 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $553 +$82 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $53 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 01 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 01 $516 −$504 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $100 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $270 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $75 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $729 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.29 · official $53.29 (match) · 3500 history records