Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0a9d…0f3c other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,884 (-1%) realized −$1,884 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,492per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$21
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,947
politics 34% −$92
sports 12% +$117
world 4% −$11
culture 3% −$5
economics 1% −$3
tech 1% +$4
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +6.8% -3.4% 15% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 84 +2.7% -7.1% 10% 4% -9.6%
all 138 +4.9% -5.1% 19% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 13% -10.4%
10% -14.2% 13% -18.9%
15% -22.5% 11% -26.8%
20% -30.1% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,944) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$28 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized−$1,884
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,492
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $446 $446 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,794 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $1,988 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,944 −$3 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 22 $482 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,569 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $449 +$6 +1%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5,254 −$7 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,909 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,476 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,442 −$5 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $5,197 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $46 +$59 +129%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,854 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,567 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $366 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $567 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,960 −$4 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $3,734 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $1,755 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $5,358 −$6 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,379 −$5 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,958 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $965 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,423 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $712 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $39 +$43 +109%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $3,290 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,223 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,527 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $3,100 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $2,700 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $447 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $444 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $445 5h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $448 6h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $448 7h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $411 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $411 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $482 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $482 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,538 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,540 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $509 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $510 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,518 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,520 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,531 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,533 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,566 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,568 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,567 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,569 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $449 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,565 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,567 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,513 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,515 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.19 · official $446.19 (match) · 499 history records