Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a9c…46e6 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+5%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day110.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$4
other 5% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -21.7% -29.1% 42% 13% -6.9%
≤30d 31 -21.7% -29.1% 42% 13% -6.9%
≤90d 31 -21.7% -29.1% 42% 13% -6.9%
all 31 -21.7% -29.1% 42% 13% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 13% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 10% -15.8%
15% -42.1% 10% -23.9%
20% -47.8% 3% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day110.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +147%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 45m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 49m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 8¢ $1 54m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 8¢ $1 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.76 · official $6.21 (match) · 117 history records