Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a9a…d245 other 5 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-35%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$5
sports 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -58.6% -62.6% 25% 25% -74.4%
≤30d 4 -58.6% -62.6% 25% 25% -74.4%
≤90d 4 -58.6% -62.6% 25% 25% -74.4%
all 4 -58.6% -62.6% 25% 25% -74.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.6% 25% -74.4%
10% -66.2% 25% -76.8%
15% -69.4% 25% -79.1%
20% -72.4% 25% -81.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $2 35h
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 40h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 40h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 42h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.03 · official $6.03 (match) · 10 history records