Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a99…d92e sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-10%) realized −$40 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$24
other 27% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.1% -29.5% 22% 22% -24.0%
≤30d 9 -22.1% -29.5% 22% 22% -24.0%
≤90d 9 -22.1% -29.5% 22% 22% -24.0%
all 9 -22.1% -29.5% 22% 22% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 22% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 11% -31.3%
15% -42.4% 11% -37.9%
20% -48.1% 11% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)9 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 53¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Over 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Croatia to win the second half? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Croatia 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$21 +208%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$8 -25%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$11 -56%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$10 -50%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $101 +$20 +20%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$14 -71%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$14 -68%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -82%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$16 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $23 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 29¢ $9 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $10 1h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 24¢ $5 1h
Croatia to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 12¢ $6 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $6 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 9¢ $4 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 2h
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $20 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $10 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $20 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $20 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.69 · official $185.69 (match) · 30 history records