Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

0A 0x0a99…21eb crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$42 (+12%) realized +$65 · open −$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%5W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-24.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+11.9%	+1.2%	50%	50%	+0.9%
≤30d	2	+11.9%	+1.2%	50%	50%	+0.9%
≤90d	17	-16.6%	-24.6%	29%	29%	+1.8%
all	17	-16.6%	-24.6%	29%	29%	+1.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.6%	29%	+1.8%
10%	-31.8%	29%	-7.9%
15%	-38.4%	18%	-16.8%
20%	-44.4%	12%	-25.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 70% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -57% → late +19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$7 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.38 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage

Net worth$11

Realized+$65

Unrealized−$23

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses5 / 12

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage51d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	8¢	$34	$11	−$23 (-68%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 24	$30	+$10	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 24	$31	−$2	-8%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	May 06	$11	+$67	+596%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	May 06	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	May 06	$9	−$9	-97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	May 06	$5	−$5	-97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?	May 06	$35	+$19	+54%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	May 06	$4	−$4	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	May 06	$33	−$2	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	May 06	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	May 03	$6	−$2	-30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	May 03	$10	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	May 03	$31	−$31	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	May 03	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	May 03	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	May 03	$36	+$11	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	May 03	$36	+$15	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$27	1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	SELL Down	86¢	$39	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$31	1h
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$78	48d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	48d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	BUY Yes	0¢	$9	48d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	48d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$55	48d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	64¢	$35	48d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	3¢	$4	48d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	14¢	$11	48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$2	48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	SELL Up	67¢	$37	48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$31	48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$2	48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$2	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$2	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$2	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$2	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$2	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$10	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$31	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$5	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$5	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$10	51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	51d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.75 · official $10.75 (match) · 41 history records