Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a98…485a weather 292 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%274W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 218 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 278 -0.6% -10.1% 99% 1% -10.0%
all 278 -0.6% -10.1% 99% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses274 / 4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)278 / 292
History coverage38d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 10 Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 40h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.79 · official $129.79 (match) · 576 history records