Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a98…27c4 politics 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%3W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$3
sports 33% $0
world 7% $0
culture 2% $0
other 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.6% -21.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 7 -6.0% -14.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -6.0% -14.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 40 -5.3% -14.3% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses3 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage220d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $141 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $71 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $143 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $222 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 28 $73 $0 -0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $293 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $75 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $75 $0 -1%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $1 $0 -50%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $146 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $72 +$2 +3%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $72 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 28 $75 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $1 $0 -20%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 13 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 9d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 15d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $71 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $71 20d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $71 106d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $71 114d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 114d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 116d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 118d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 118d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.49 · official $3.49 (match) · 199 history records