Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0A 0x0a94…00fd other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +243% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +186% what you keep after slip
Net edge+186%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$1
sports 33% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+210.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +243.2% +210.5% 100% 100% +210.5%
≤30d 1 +243.2% +210.5% 100% 100% +210.5%
≤90d 1 +243.2% +210.5% 100% 100% +210.5%
all 1 +243.2% +210.5% 100% 100% +210.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +210.5% 100% +210.5%
10% +180.8% 100% +180.8%
15% +153.6% 100% +153.6%
20% +128.8% 100% +128.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +243% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +243% · $-wt +243% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +243%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 55m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $0 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.68 · official $1.13 (match) · 12 history records