Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0A 0x0a92…6b00 sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,868 (+10%) realized +$2,696 · open +$172
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%73W / 46L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$288est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,689
7 days+$3,504
14 days+$3,202
30 days+$3,202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$2,119
other 6% +$1,262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +23.2% +11.4% 66% 59% +7.4%
≤30d 117 +13.0% +2.2% 61% 54% +0.9%
≤90d 119 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 55% +0.9%
all 119 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 55% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 55% +0.9%
10% -7.0% 50% -8.8%
15% -16.0% 43% -17.6%
20% -24.2% 34% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$143 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$2,696
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses73 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage35d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 66¢ 100¢ $330 $500 +$170 (+51%)
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Clement Tabur 79¢ 10¢ $173 $22 −$151 (-87%)
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Stefanos Sakellaridis 36¢ 90¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $1,057 −$57 -5%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $78 +$22 +29%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $881 +$788 +90%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $25 +$60 +242%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $13 +$13 +98%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $14 +$13 +94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $560 +$210 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $597 +$821 +137%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$11 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $745 −$245 -33%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 +$21 +365%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$14 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $530 +$231 +44%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 +$56 +129%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $98 +$3 +3%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $120 +$26 +21%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $14 +$7 +47%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $10 −$9 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $304 +$196 +65%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $91 +$50 +55%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $27 −$27 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $369 +$172 +47%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $123 −$120 -98%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $397 −$395 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $249 −$245 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $333 +$167 +50%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $827 +$173 +21%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $112 +$34 +30%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1,015 −$500 -49%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $244 −$235 -96%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $368 +$139 +38%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $427 +$73 +17%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $1 +$5 +550%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $903 +$97 +11%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $457 +$543 +119%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $40 +$6 +14%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $601 −$113 -19%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $443 +$43 +10%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $18 +$17 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 36¢ $2 30m
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 79¢ $174 32m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 98¢ $490 59m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 98¢ $490 59m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 46¢ $77 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Barbora Palicova 21¢ $123 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $294 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $294 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $289 2h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 24¢ $10 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 61¢ $3 3h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 50¢ $13 3h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 77¢ $78 3h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 33¢ $15 3h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 51¢ $14 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $545 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $18 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $193 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 38¢ $405 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $25 13h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 58¢ $294 15h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 90¢ $451 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $12 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 21¢ $6 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $44 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $98 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.57 · official $526.30 (match) · 264 history records