Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a91…3eb7 sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,596 (+23%) realized +$1,596 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate71%51W / 21L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$721
14 days+$1,566
30 days+$1,537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$1,578
crypto 10% −$57
other 3% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +30.7% +18.3% 100% 100% +16.1%
≤30d 52 -17.3% -25.2% 63% 44% +13.8%
≤90d 52 -17.3% -25.2% 63% 44% +13.8%
all 72 -6.9% -15.7% 71% 54% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 54% +11.0%
10% -23.8% 33% +0.4%
15% -31.2% 19% -9.3%
20% -37.9% 11% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$25 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.93 per $1 lost it wins $3.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,596
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses51 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage152d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $681 +$181 +27%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $817 +$286 +35%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $998 +$235 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $36 +$19 +52%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 09 $501 +$48 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 09 $599 +$313 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $24 +$10 +42%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $52 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $100 −$98 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $304 +$205 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$5 +20%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $47 −$47 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $499 +$504 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 03 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 01 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$7 +33%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Raptors vs. Lakers Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Heat Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs strongboys (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Euro Jun 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 01 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 73¢ $817 3d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 79¢ $681 3d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 80¢ $998 6d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 91¢ $501 8d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 65¢ $599 8d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 65¢ $36 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 9d
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? BUY Yes 70¢ $24 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 5¢ $4 9d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 62¢ $52 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $100 10d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $304 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 12d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 68¢ $47 12d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $499 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records