Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0a8d…a483 sports 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+2%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate84%209W / 41L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$13
crypto 19% +$48
other 5% +$1
weather 1% −$9
world 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -5.1% -14.1% 84% 8% -9.4%
≤30d 250 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 15% -8.3%
≤90d 250 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 15% -8.3%
all 250 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 15% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 15% -8.3%
10% -15.2% 9% -17.1%
15% -23.4% 5% -25.1%
20% -30.9% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses209 / 41
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)250 / 253
History coverage27d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-0%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Under 92¢ 92¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $56 +$1 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 +$7 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $52 +$1 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $26 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $37 +$2 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $18 −$9 -49%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $623 +$18 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $47 −$8 -18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $47 −$13 -28%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $33 +$1 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $19 $0 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $16 +$1 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $44 +$2 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $6 +$2 +27%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $8 +$1 +18%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $14 $0 +3%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $11 $0 +3%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 4m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $16 21m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $16 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $33 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $6 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $46 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $11 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 67¢ $77 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $71 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $16 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $35 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 94¢ $16 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $26 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $15 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 42¢ $9 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $19 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $19 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $19 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $19 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $18 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.12 · official $79.02 (match) · 631 history records