Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0A 0x0a8c…f872 sports 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,068 (-6%) realized −$17,066 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%222W / 184L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$725per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$941est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$58
14 days−$6
30 days−$2,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$16,753
other 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +194.8% +166.8% 33% 33% +100.1%
≤30d 36 -7.1% -15.9% 39% 36% -43.1%
≤90d 184 -2.7% -11.9% 52% 50% -17.1%
all 406 -2.9% -12.1% 55% 51% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 51% -14.5%
10% -20.5% 45% -22.7%
15% -28.2% 38% -30.2%
20% -35.2% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$820) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$283 vs −$432 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$17,066
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses222 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$941
Open positions3
Markets (closed)406 / 409
History coverage170d
Avg bet$725
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $12 +$94 +784%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $200 +$124 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $444 −$134 -30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $286 +$253 +88%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $86 −$85 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,613 −$1,597 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $306 −$144 -47%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $482 +$279 +58%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,159 +$84 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $499 −$428 -86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $506 −$501 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $484 −$284 -59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $243 +$102 +42%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $112 −$110 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $39 +$21 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $102 −$50 -49%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$21 -41%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $56 +$34 +62%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $90 +$25 +28%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $50 +$40 +81%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $51 +$47 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $20 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$27 +134%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $163 +$174 +107%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $95 −$39 -41%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $135 −$33 -24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $101 −$99 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $24 +$17 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$19 -62%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $71 +$42 +59%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $25 +$47 +185%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 +$75 +147%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $61 −$60 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $40 +$20 +48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $18 +$22 +118%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $49 +$19 +38%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $46 −$45 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $51 −$31 -60%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $48 +$77 +158%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 50¢ $126 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $324 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 61¢ $200 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 55¢ $144 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 73¢ $303 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $538 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 52¢ $286 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $300 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $100 11d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $86 11d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 70¢ $72 15d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $71 15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $778 15d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 12¢ $91 15d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 35¢ $306 15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $763 16d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 99¢ $761 16d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $482 16d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $796 16d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $452 16d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL B8 44¢ $447 16d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 68¢ $707 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.38 · official $32.38 (match) · 961 history records