Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:48:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0A 0x0a8c…329f other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$307 (+20%) realized +$309 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$188per market

Trades / day8.3pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+5.2%	-4.8%	67%	67%	+12.3%
≤30d	6	+5.2%	-4.8%	67%	67%	+12.3%
≤90d	6	+5.2%	-4.8%	67%	67%	+12.3%
all	6	+5.2%	-4.8%	67%	67%	+12.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	67%	+12.3%
10%	-13.9%	67%	+1.5%
15%	-22.2%	50%	-8.3%
20%	-29.9%	17%	-17.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$115 vs −$84 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$286

Realized+$309

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$188

Trades / day8.3

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score	Yes	56¢	56¢	$191	$189	−$2 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$97	$96	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$94	−$94	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$489	+$153	+31%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$178	+$159	+89%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$101	−$74	-73%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$151	+$57	+38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$199	+$91	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$98	1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$194	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$337	12h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$337	12h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	52¢	$178	13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	67¢	$151	13h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	16¢	$12	13h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	18¢	$15	13h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$94	24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$152	26h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	27h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	72¢	$151	37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$290	39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$199	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.52 · official $285.52 (match) · 17 history records