Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a8b…d39b crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$11
other 18% −$2
politics 13% +$4
economics 3% $0
finance 3% −$15
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 15 -8.3% -17.0% 27% 7% -10.1%
≤90d 18 -6.9% -15.7% 33% 6% -10.0%
all 47 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 6% -9.6%
10% -34.9% 6% -18.3%
15% -41.2% 4% -26.2%
20% -46.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage585d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $62 −$9 -15%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $250 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $270 $0 +0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $159 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $76 +$4 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 23 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 08 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 26 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 03 $220 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Jan 21 $200 $0 -0%
Over $15M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jan 09 $1 $0 +4%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Jan 09 $1 $0 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Jan 09 $1 +$4 +426%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $220 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 25 $240 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 16? Dec 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $239 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 22 $672 +$4 +1%
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? Jan 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Jan 14 $0 $0 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Jan 14 $0 $0 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? Jan 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Nov 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 09 $0 $0 -99%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 09 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $240 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 27¢ $53 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 31¢ $62 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $248 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $249 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $250 31h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY $1 33h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $250 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 33h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 48¢ $94 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $69 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $20 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $8 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $3 34h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $268 34h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $269 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 11¢ $1 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $269 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $269 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $270 18d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $159 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 18d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $9 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $40 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $120 18d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $9 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.35 · official $270.35 (match) · 128 history records