Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:54:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0A 0x0a8a…d6ae crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$105 (+27%) realized +$115 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$34
14 days+$112
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$1
sports 35% +$32
crypto 19% +$70
politics 8% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +43.4% +29.8% 67% 33% +10.7%
≤30d 38 +30.2% +17.8% 32% 24% +13.5%
≤90d 38 +30.2% +17.8% 32% 24% +13.5%
all 38 +30.2% +17.8% 32% 24% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.8% 24% +13.5%
10% +6.5% 18% +2.6%
15% -3.8% 16% -7.3%
20% -13.2% 16% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×4.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 55¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$4 +12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$56 +550%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 17 $30 −$3 -12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$29 +278%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$82 +3974%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +72%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 45h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 11¢ $4 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 11¢ $4 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 8d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 8d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 66¢ $15 9d
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 32¢ $12 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.16 · official $103.16 (match) · 80 history records