Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a86…5664 sports 1223 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,675 (-2%) realized −$2,454 · open −$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%362W / 845L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days+$546
14 days+$1,260
30 days+$3,837
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$9,618
other 38% −$5,758
crypto 7% −$4,289
politics 3% −$1,627
world 1% −$812
tech 0% −$267
culture 0% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.2% -10.6% 35% 35% -0.4%
≤30d 57 -16.8% -24.7% 25% 25% +20.2%
≤90d 88 -19.9% -27.5% 23% 23% +3.0%
all 1207 -6.1% -15.1% 30% 30% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 30% -11.4%
10% -23.2% 30% -19.8%
15% -30.6% 29% -27.6%
20% -37.4% 29% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$249 vs −$110 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$1,406
Realized−$2,454
Unrealized−$221
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses362 / 845
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1207 / 1223
History coverage593d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $300 $309 +$9 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $241 +$41 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $188 $148 −$40 (-21%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $85 $72 −$12 (-15%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 43¢ 22¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 24¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+63%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $75 $48 −$27 (-36%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $22 $43 +$21 (+98%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-59%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $22 $13 −$9 (-40%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $40 $12 −$28 (-70%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 419 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$58 -57%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $204 +$411 +202%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$230 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $508 +$372 +73%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $203 −$37 -18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 −$97 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $343 −$335 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $203 +$150 +74%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$194 +474%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,012 +$313 +31%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $204 −$19 -9%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $305 +$445 +146%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 +$364 +238%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $275 +$760 +276%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $215 −$188 -88%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $299 −$292 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $250 −$245 -98%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $206 −$79 -38%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $225 −$220 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $523 +$1,948 +373%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $306 −$300 -98%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $22 −$21 -97%
Spread: SK Brann (-2.5) May 29 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $306 −$300 -98%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $398 −$388 -98%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 10¢ $44 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 22¢ $102 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $102 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $102 5h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 17¢ $102 6h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $102 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $508 28h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $166 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $99 42h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 9¢ $50 43h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 25¢ $204 43h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 92¢ $353 43h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $139 47h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $203 47h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $204 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $77 47h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $98 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $72 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 38¢ $102 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $102 3d
Will Algeria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 26¢ $82 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,406.11 · official $1,405.46 (match) · 2476 history records