Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0A 0x0a85…23b6 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$119 (+13%) realized +$220 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.9% +4.9% 88% 75% +9.5%
≤30d 8 +15.9% +4.9% 88% 75% +9.5%
≤90d 8 +15.9% +4.9% 88% 75% +9.5%
all 8 +15.9% +4.9% 88% 75% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.9% 75% +9.5%
10% ← realistic here -5.1% 50% -0.9%
15% -14.3% 38% -10.5%
20% -22.7% 0% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$3 · ×5.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×40.43 per $1 lost it wins $40.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$220
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 48¢ $130 $86 −$44 (-34%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $187 +$12 +6%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5 −$3 -63%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $110 +$39 +36%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $90 +$14 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $81 +$15 +19%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $57 +$24 +41%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $43 +$14 +32%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $31 +$12 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 4¢ $0 0m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $139 18m
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $139 52m
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $59 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $99 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $40 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 68¢ $140 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $146 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 7¢ $2 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $110 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $105 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $90 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $96 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $81 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $57 4h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $57 6h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $43 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $43 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $27 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.53 · official $86.53 (match) · 24 history records