Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a85…cde8 crypto 1200 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate85%1018W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$43
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 17% -10.1%
≤30d 814 -5.7% -14.7% 83% 9% -10.4%
≤90d 1200 -5.3% -14.4% 85% 7% -10.4%
all 1200 -5.3% -14.4% 85% 7% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 7% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 2% -19.0%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1018 / 182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1200 / 1200
History coverage84d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1200 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2392 history records