Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a84…927d sports 375 markets active 1h ago coverage 656d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%40W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$25
other 28% −$23
politics 26% −$16
economics 6% −$4
crypto 3% −$3
world 3% −$1
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 82 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 101 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.2%
all 374 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

656d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses40 / 334
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)374 / 375
History coverage656d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 22 $52 $0 -1%
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 21 $50 $0 -1%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 19 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $180 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 16 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $54 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $147 −$3 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $276 −$3 -1%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $19 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 08 $56 −$1 -2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $220 $0 +0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $49 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 97¢ $52 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 97¢ $52 8h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $57 9h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $58 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $49 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $50 17h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 18h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 24h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 24h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $40 32h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $51 33h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $52 40h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 41h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 45h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 45h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $57 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $58 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $43 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $44 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $64 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.89 · official $38.89 (match) · 1407 history records